Month ahead rainfall forecasting using gene expression programming

In the present study, gene expression programming (GEP) technique was used to develop one-month ahead monthly rainfall forecasting models in two meteorological stations located at a semi-arid region, Iran. GEP was trained and tested using total monthly rainfall (TMR) time series measured at the stations. Time lagged series of TMR samples having weak stationary state were used as inputs for the modeling. Performance of the best evolved models were compared with those of classic genetic programming (GP) and autoregressive state-space (ASS) approaches using coefficient of efficiency (R2) and root mean squared error measures. The results showed good performance (0.53<R2<0.56) for GEP models at testing period. In both stations, the best model evolved by GEP outperforms the GP and are significantly superior to the ASS models.No sponso

Streamflow and sediment load prediction using linear genetic programming

Daily flow and suspended sediment discharge are two major hydrological variables that affect rivers’ morphology and ecosystem, particularly during flood events. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been successfully used to model and predict these variables in recent studies. However, these are implicit and cannot be simply used in practice. In this paper, linear genetic programming (LGP) approach has been suggested to develop explicit models to predict these variables in two rivers in Iran. The explicit relationships (prediction rules) evolved by LGP take the form of equations or program codes, which can be checked for its physical consistency. The results showed that the LGP outperforms ANNs to get global maximum and minimum discharges providing lowest root mean squared error and higher coefficient of efficiency both for training and validation periods.Nehirlerin morfolojisini, ekosistemi ve özellikle taşkın olaylarını etkileyen iki ana değişken askıdaki sediment ve günlük akımlardır. Yapay sinir ağları (YSA), bu değişkenleri modellemek ve tahmin etmek için yakın zamanda yapılmış çalışmalarda başarıyla kullanılmıştır. Bununla birlikte, bunlar kapalı yöntemlerdir ve pratik uygulamalarda kolaylıkla kullanılamazlar. Bu makalede, İran'daki iki nehirde bu değişkenleri tahmin etmek üzere açık modeller geliştirmek için doğrusal genetik programlama (DGP) yaklaşımı önerilmiştir. DGP tarafından geliştirilen açık ilişkiler (tahmin kuralları), fiziksel tutarlılığı açısından kontrol edilebilen denklemler veya program kodları şeklindedir. Sonuçlar, global maksimum ve minimum akımları elde etme noktasında, DGP’nin YSA’ya göre daha başarılı olduğunu gerek kalibrasyon gerekse doğrulama aşamalarında hataların karelerinin ortalamasının karekökünün en düşük, verimlilik katsayısının ise daha yüksek olmasını sağlayarak göstermiştir.No sponso

Principals of planning and realization of greater melen water supply project, Turkey

International Conference on Civil and Environmental Geology and Mining Engineering (4. : 2019 : Trabzon, Turkey)The Greater Melen water supply Project (GMP) is a large-scale interbasin freshwater transfer project that provides domestic and industrial water requirements of Istanbul. Its foster resource is Melen River, lying in D zce Province, Black Sea region. In addition to water supply, hydroelectric power generation has been aimed through a hydroelectric power plant in order to benefit from the energy of the water raised behind Greater Melen Dam. The GMP consists of different components including (but not limited to), interbasin water governance, quality characteristics of transferred water, construction technology, and potential hydroelectric power generation, particularly in heavy rainfall seasons. In this paper, the main characterises of GMP is briefly reviewed and the principals of planning and realization of the project have been highlighted. In addition, technical features of the hydraulic structures that were constructed during different stages of the project have been summarized. The economic and social characteristics of the project have been discussed as well.No sponso

Estimation of urban imperviousness and its impacts on flashfloods in Gazipaşa, Turkey

The paper examines flooding issues under rapid urbanization in Gazipasa city during the past seven years 2013-2019. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) integrated with the satellite images representing temporal variation in the land use and land cover (LULC) characteristics of the city were used to determine the variation in the runoff generation capacity, flood volume, and associated risks. The Google Earth software together with GIS technology were utilized to create and handle spatial data required for SWMM simulation. Standard design storm intensity derived from the local intensity-duration-frequency curves was used as the stationary input parameter for SWMM simulation in both the past and current LULC conditions. The comparison between LULC maps showed that the extent of urban imperviousness area has been approximately increased by 80% in average. The SWMM simulations showed the peak flood value of 51.3 m3 /sec and 61.4 m³/sec for the year 2013 and 2019, respectively. Moreover, under the same design storm, Rational Method has been applied and 39 m3 /sec of peak flow rate has been calculated by disregarding the urbanization activity. The results indicate that the LULC variation during the past seven years resulted in almost 20% (18%) increase in peak flow (flood volume).No sponso

Cyprus water supply project: features and outcomes

International Congress on Advances in Civil Engineering (13. : 2018 : İzmir, Turkey)Cyprus Island has very limited water resources. Recently, this problem has rather been resolved by transferring water from Turkey to the island known as Cyprus Water Supply Project (CWSP). The CWSP is comprised of three phases named, Turkey side, sea crossing, and Cyprus side. From the construction point of view, sea crossing is the most important phase of the project that is the first in the world with its high-density polyethylene pipeline of 80 km crossing the Mediterranean Sea in a suspended position at 250 meters below sea level. Besides, the annual amount of water transferred to the island is more important from socio-environmental perspective. This article aims to introduce the main construction features of CWSP. In addition, outcomes of the project were reviewed regarding the island climate, available water, local and regional development objectives and ambitions, and increasing water demand in the foster island. Since 2015, with the realization of CWSP, 75 million cubic meters of water is supplied to the island per year that is used for potable, irrigation, and industrial needs. The results indicated that the supplied water has significantly increased the annual amount of total accessible water of northern island. But, there is still substantial shortage of water in the entire island to meet its needs. Lessons learnt from this project improved the knowledge of submarine water pipeline construction and could be considered as a real milestone toward transboundary water supply projects in the world.No sponso

Climate change impact assessment on mild and extreme drought events using copulas over Ankara, Turkey

From Springer Nature via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2019-10-26, accepted 2020-05-04, registration 2020-05-04, pub-electronic 2020-05-22, online 2020-05-22, pub-print 2020-08Publication status: PublishedFunder: University of ManchesterAbstract: Climate change, one of the major environmental challenges facing mankind, has caused intermittent droughts in many regions resulting in reduced water resources. This study investigated the impact of climate change on the characteristics (occurrence, duration, and severity) of meteorological drought across Ankara, Turkey. To this end, the observed monthly rainfall series from five meteorology stations scattered across Ankara Province as well as dynamically downscaled outputs of three global climate models that run under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios was used to attain the well-known SPI series during the reference period of 1986–2018 and the future period of 2018–2050, respectively. Analyzing drought features in two time periods generally indicated the higher probability of occurrence of drought in the future period. The results showed that the duration of mild droughts may increase, and extreme droughts will occur with longer durations and larger severities. Moreover, joint return period analysis through different copula functions revealed that the return period of mild droughts will remain the same in the near future, while it declines by 12% over extreme droughts in the near future

Modern soft computing techniques and their applications in civil engineering

International Scientific Conference (12. : 2019 : Saraybosna, Bosna Hersek)Soft computing (SC) is a group of technigues and methodologies applied to solve a wide range of problems spread in several areas of science. The aim is to exploit tolerance for imprecision, uncertainiy and partial truth to achieve tractability, robustness and low solution cost. Some of the weli-stablished methodologies include Neural Networks, Evolutionary Computing, Fuzzy Logic, Rough Sets, Decision Trees, etc. The focus of this paper is to briefiy review the fundamentals of modern genetic programming (GP) technigues and their recent applications in various disciplines of civil engineering, particulariy in hydro-environmental studies.No sponso

Principals of planning and realization of greater melen water supply project, Turkey

International Conference on Civil and Environmental Geology and Mining Engineering (4. : 2019 : Trabzon, Turkey)The Greater Melen water supply Project (GMP) is a large-scale interbasin freshwater transfer project that provides domestic and industrial water requirements of Istanbul. Its foster resource is Melen River, lying in D zce Province, Black Sea region. In addition to water supply, hydroelectric power generation has been aimed through a hydroelectric power plant in order to benefit from the energy of the water raised behind Greater Melen Dam. The GMP consists of different components including (but not limited to), interbasin water governance, quality characteristics of transferred water, construction technology, and potential hydroelectric power generation, particularly in heavy rainfall seasons. In this paper, the main characterises of GMP is briefly reviewed and the principals of planning and realization of the project have been highlighted. In addition, technical features of the hydraulic structures that were constructed during different stages of the project have been summarized. The economic and social characteristics of the project have been discussed as well.No sponso

Modern soft computing techniques and their applications in civil engineering

International Scientific Conference (12. : 2019 : Saraybosna, Bosna Hersek)Soft computing (SC) is a group of technigues and methodologies applied to solve a wide range of problems spread in several areas of science. The aim is to exploit tolerance for imprecision, uncertainiy and partial truth to achieve tractability, robustness and low solution cost. Some of the weli-stablished methodologies include Neural Networks, Evolutionary Computing, Fuzzy Logic, Rough Sets, Decision Trees, etc. The focus of this paper is to briefiy review the fundamentals of modern genetic programming (GP) technigues and their recent applications in various disciplines of civil engineering, particulariy in hydro-environmental studies.No sponso

An improved gene expression programming model for streamflow forecasting in intermittent streams

Skilful forecasting of monthly streamflow in intermittent rivers is a challenging task in stochastic hydrology. In this study, genetic algorithm (GA) was combined with gene expression programming (GEP) as a new hybrid model for month ahead streamflow forecasting in an intermittent stream. The hybrid model was named GEP-GA in which sub-expression trees of the best evolved GEP model were rescaled by appropriate weighting coefficients through the use of GA optimizer. Auto-correlation and partial auto-correlation functions of the streamflow records as well as evolutionary search of GEP were used to identify the optimum predictors (i.e., number of lags) for the model. The proposed methodology was demonstrated using monthly streamflow data from the Shavir Creek in Iran. Performance of the GEP-GA was compared to that of classic genetic programming (GP), GEP, multiple linear regression and GEP-linear regression models developed in the present study as the benchmarks. The results showed that the GEP-GA outperforms all the benchmarks and motivated to be used in practice.No sponso